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Subject:So what happens now?
Time:09:51 am
Re Brexit, that is.

My predictions
  • Cameron does resign (already confirmed he will according to this morning's news) leaving the Conservatives running the country but in a mess.
  • Renewed calls for Scottish and Welsh independence, union of N&S Ireland, etc. - already started. No doubt Cornwall will soon follow.
  • Calls for London to become a separate state and remain in the EU - not a snowball's chance in hell, but it's already being talked up.
  • UKIP realise they don't actually have a coherent strategy post winning, apart from most of their actual politicians wanting to dump Farage with extreme prejudice.
  • The pound declines in value but probably comes up again gradually, but never fully recovers.
  • A couple of years of negotiations then a slow withdrawal process over several more years before Britain actually leaves the EU.
Probably a lot I've missed here, but it's going to be an interesting and scary ride.
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curiouswombat
Link:(Link)
Time:2016-06-24 08:57 am (UTC)
I think you have it about right.

My daughter has suggested that we, here, ask to renegotiate Protocol 3 with the Rep of Ireland as our EU link a sort of MannIN campaign. I dread to think how Gibraltar is taking it. Or the Channel Islands - perhaps they might wish to become a French territory! Or perhaps not :)
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ffutures
Link:(Link)
Time:2016-06-24 09:01 am (UTC)
I forgot about the Channel Islands and Gibraltar - sorry! I must admit to being not entirely sure of Channel Islands status in the EU; aren't you outside for e.g. VAT purposes?
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curiouswombat
Link:(Link)
Time:2016-06-24 09:31 am (UTC)
The Crown Dependancies of the Isle of Man and the Channel Islands have (or had...) their own relationship to the EU called Protocol 3.

This basically means we do not pay anything in to the EU, nor can we get any of the subsidies and grants etc, that the UK does. But we are allowed to trade with the EU without tariff barriers as long as we obey their regulations for goods and services.

So why would the UK leaving effect us? Because Protocol 3 says that in all negotiations/treaties etc. the Crown Dependencies will be represented by 'the UK as an EU member'.... So protocol 3 becomes void if the UK is no longer a member and we will face all sorts of barriers in anything where we come into contact with EU countries.

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ffutures
Link:(Link)
Time:2016-06-24 09:49 am (UTC)
Crap. Maybe you could try for statehood like e.g. San Marino.
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curiouswombat
Link:(Link)
Time:2016-06-24 10:10 am (UTC)
I reckon it would be an option - it is debated now and again in the local press. And we could stop paying the UK government to defend us* - end even stop paying the TV licence as we currently do.

*A waste of money, I have always thought - you think they would just sit back and let the Russians invade us in our geographical position?
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ffutures
Link:(Link)
Time:2016-06-24 09:55 am (UTC)
Sorry - I'm trying to figure out why I was thinking of Mann as one of the Channel Islands when I wrote my comment, and failing miserably.
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curiouswombat
Link:(Link)
Time:2016-06-24 10:11 am (UTC)
I reckoned it was because it had been a long and distressing night and wasn't going to mention it :)
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livejournal
Link:(Link)
Time:2016-06-24 10:29 am (UTC)
Hello! Your entry got to top-25 of the most popular entries in LiveJournal!
Learn more about LiveJournal Ratings in FAQ.
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ffutures
Link:(Link)
Time:2016-06-24 01:43 pm (UTC)
Another day with not a lot else going on...
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pauldormer
Link:(Link)
Time:2016-06-24 10:49 am (UTC)
Maybe we should try something like in The City and The City. People who want to stay in the EU wear different coloured clothes, have different coloured buildings, etc. Build a big customs hall at St. Pancras. Go in one door from the EU, out the other and you're in Little England.
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ffutures
Link:(Link)
Time:2016-06-24 01:42 pm (UTC)
Works for me. Passport to Pimlico may also be relevant.
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robby
Link:(Link)
Time:2016-06-24 12:36 pm (UTC)
I'm reading that some other EU nations may vote to exit, and what's left could devolve into a new German empire. Sinn Fein is calling for a United Ireland.
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ffutures
Link:(Link)
Time:2016-06-24 01:43 pm (UTC)
Anyone's guess at this stage.
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yamamanama
Link:(Link)
Time:2016-06-24 02:08 pm (UTC)
Would adding Northern Ireland actually work out in Ireland's favor? I'm not really clear on the Loyalist/Republican balance.
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robby
Link:(Link)
Time:2016-06-24 02:12 pm (UTC)
There may be wide support, as they would be absorbed into Ireland, and remain in the EU.
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ffutures
Link:(Link)
Time:2016-06-24 09:11 pm (UTC)
Not sure the Unionists would go for it.
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robby
Link:(Link)
Time:2016-06-24 09:20 pm (UTC)
I did read that the two major Unionist parties were split on Brexit, but I guess that is not relevant in terms of reunification.
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pmcray
Link:(Link)
Time:2016-06-24 02:16 pm (UTC)
Federalisation along German lines might lead to a situation where London was institutionally able to cede. But this would take decades and doubt that any meaningful form of federalism or localism is likely to be on the cards.

This is just an unholy slow motion of a mess. I am depressed beyond words.
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ffutures
Link:(Link)
Time:2016-06-24 09:10 pm (UTC)
It's a perfect storm of greed and deception. It's going to be an unholy mess, I think.
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pmcray
Link:(Link)
Time:2016-06-24 09:56 pm (UTC)
I think a lot of people might looking for a clause now that lets them change their minds within 14 days. Sadly, there isn't one.
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