June 24th, 2016

marcus 2013

So what happens now?

Re Brexit, that is.

My predictions
  • Cameron does resign (already confirmed he will according to this morning's news) leaving the Conservatives running the country but in a mess.
  • Renewed calls for Scottish and Welsh independence, union of N&S Ireland, etc. - already started. No doubt Cornwall will soon follow.
  • Calls for London to become a separate state and remain in the EU - not a snowball's chance in hell, but it's already being talked up.
  • UKIP realise they don't actually have a coherent strategy post winning, apart from most of their actual politicians wanting to dump Farage with extreme prejudice.
  • The pound declines in value but probably comes up again gradually, but never fully recovers.
  • A couple of years of negotiations then a slow withdrawal process over several more years before Britain actually leaves the EU.
Probably a lot I've missed here, but it's going to be an interesting and scary ride.
marcus 2013

Not much of a surprise.

Boris Johnson is being touted as the most likely replacement for Cameron. So forget any idea of maintaining anything resembling a green belt, coherent housing policy, etc...

The worst part of it is that he's probably the best replacement the Conservatives can currently offer.